能力分异与军事协作

Capability Differentials and Military Coordination

军事协作指联盟成员或伙伴国家制订联合作战计划的行动,大国间结盟(结伴)关系引发公开或秘密的军事协作或者无法引发军事协作的条件有待揭示。在现有理论基础上,作者提出军事协作是联盟成员或伙伴国家的信号工具或效率工具,大国相对能力的变化决定联盟或伙伴关系能否引发军事协作。若结盟(结伴)大国的相对能力同时上升,则联盟(伙伴)关系将引发公开军事协作;若结盟(结伴)大国的相对能力同时下降,则联盟(伙伴)关系将引发秘密军事协作;若结盟(结伴)大国的相对能力有升有降,则联盟(伙伴)关系将无法引发军事协作。作者基于英国、美国、德国、意大利和苏联的档案,以五组案例检验理论的效力,得到以下发现:1935年法苏联盟没有引发军事协作;1936年英法协约引发了公开军事协作;1935年法意协定、1939年德意联盟和1939年德苏协定均引发了秘密军事协作。根据这一理论,2014—2018年美国与印度的伙伴关系未引发军事协作。但随着美印相对能力的变化,美印伙伴关系的发展可能引发秘密军事协作。

When do alignment relationships or strategic partnerships cause military coordination,and in what particular forms?Based upon existing international relations theories,I argue that military coordination may either increase members’military efficiency or signal intentions to non-members.Great powers’relative capability change offers a new explanation.If great powers are rising in terms of their relative capabilities,alignment relationships or strategic partnerships are likely to bring about public military coordination.In contrast,if great powers are declining in terms of their relative capabilities,alignment relationships or strategic partnerships are likely to lead to secret military coordination.If great powers display different trends in terms of their capability accumulations,military coordination is not likely to occur.Based upon British,American,German,Italian,and Russian archives,I examine whether alignment relationships or strategic partnerships caused military coordination in five cases—the FrancoSoviet,British-Franco,Franco-Italian,German-Italian,and German-Soviet relations between 1935 and 1939.The capability differential theory suggests that the United States’strategic partnership with India did not have sufficient implications upon their military coordination between 2014 and 2018.However,both sides are likely to turn their cooperation into secret military coordination based upon their estimates of capability differentials in the near future.