对冲地缘政治风险:跨国公司战略联盟与俄欧天然气政治

Strategic Alliance of Multinationals and Russia-Europe Gas Politics

本文运用国际政治经济学、国际商务学和制度经济学的相关理论,将战略联盟作为独立分析单位引入跨国公司与地缘政治的互动分析之中,考察商业利益影响地缘政治的机制与逻辑。跨国公司利用战略联盟这一有效制度安排,将国家行为引致的地缘政治风险锁定在可控范围之内。为实现上述目的,本文还进一步构建了“战略联盟-地缘政治”二元分析框架,从理论上概括了四种不同类型的互动模式,并以北溪管道财团、南溪管道财团和纳布科管道财团作为案例进行分析与检验。研究发现,市场权力和联盟结构是决定战略联盟对冲地缘政治风险的核心因素。就二者互动关系而言,市场占有率和公司规模不仅影响跨国公司的市场权力,而且决定其主导联盟伙伴关系的能力;联盟结构的不同类型反过来也会影响战略联盟利用市场权力对冲风险的结果。本文构建的“战略联盟-地缘政治”二元分析框架为考察俄欧天然气政治演变提供了新的研究视角,同时也为中国能源企业海外经营时如何规避地缘政治风险提供了有益启示。

Based on the relevant theories of International Political Economy,International Business and Institutional Economics,this article introduces“strategic alliance”as an independent unit into the analysis of the interaction between multinationals and geopolitics.It aims to investigate the mechanism and logic by which commercial interests affect geopolitics.Multinationals can use“strategic alliance” as an effective institutional arrangement to lock in geo-political risks caused by state actors.Furthermore,this article constructs a “ strategic alliance-geopolitics ” framework to examine the four interaction models through case studies of the Nord Stream,South Stream and Nabucco Pipelines.This article finds out that market power and alliance structure are the core factors that determine whether strategic alliances can hedge geopolitical risk.In terms of the interaction between the two factors,market share and company size not only affect the market power of multinationals,but also determine their ability to dominate alliance partnerships.Different types of alliance structures in turn affect strategic alliances1 use of market power to hedge risk.This article also finds out that adjusting the shareholding structure is an important means for strategic alliances to respond to geopolitical risk in that changes in the shareholding structure can not only adjust the weight of multinationals in alliance decisions,but change the market power of strategic alliances.The“ strategic alliance-geopolitics” framework provides a new perspective for examining Russia-Europe gas politics.It also provides useful enlightenment for Chinese energy companies to hedge geopolitical risks when they operate overseas.