如何解除人口老龄化对消费需求的束缚

Unbinding Restraints on Consumption Imposed by Population Aging in China

中国的人口老龄化过程在经历两个重要转折点时,经济增长会受到结构性冲击。劳动年龄人口到达峰值的转折点冲击主要在供给侧,导致供给侧潜在增长率降低;总人口到达峰值的转折点冲击主要在需求侧,可能导致需求侧潜在增长率降低。后一转折点主要通过人口总量效应、年龄结构效应和收入分配效应对消费需求的扩大产生不利影响。调查数据分析表明,由于老年人口的劳动参与率低,其获得的劳动收入下降十分迅速,因此,消费水平将随年龄增长而趋于萎缩。而且,由于中国的社会养老保险和家庭养老均具有现收现付的性质,劳动年龄人口社保缴费负担重,消费有后顾之忧,在退休之前的年龄段上就出现消费减少的现象。扩大居民消费以保持总需求水平与供给侧潜在增长能力相适应,要求提高居民收入、改善收入分配、加大再分配力度,以及提高基本养老保险制度的普惠性和保障水平。

There are two turning points in population aging that have reverse impacts on China’s economic growth.The peak of working-age population that already appeared in 2010 has mainly affected the supply side,leading to a decline in supply-side potential growth rate.The peak of total population predicted to arrive in 2025-2030 is more likely to affect the demand side,leading to a decline in demand-side potential growth rate.This paper reveals how the peak of total population tends to weaken consumption via its effect on the population size,age structure and income distribution.The urban labor survey shows that as the Chinese elderly have low labor force participation rate and lose labor income earlier,there is a tendency that when they get older,they consume less.Due to the pay-as-you-go nature of the pension insurance and home-based elderly care,the decline in consumption occurs as early as at late working age.Policies of promoting consumption to match the aggregate demand with supply-side growth potential should be adopted,such as increasing household income,narrowing the income gap,stepping up redistribution,and expanding the coverage and enhancing the benefits of the basic pension insurance system.