中国数字普惠金融与省域经济增长——基于空间计量模型的实证研究

China’s Digital Inclusive Finance and Provincial Economic Growth——Empirical Research Based on Spatial Econometric Model

在数字普惠金融蓬勃发展的时代背景下,探究中国数字普惠金融对省域经济增长的影响,有利于进一步把握数字普惠金融的发展方向,为今后有针对性地制定区域性发展战略提供技术支持。文章利用2011-2018年中国省域面板数据,通过构建空间计量模型探究中国数字普惠金融对省域经济增长的影响。研究结果表明,数字普惠金融发展和经济增长均表现出显著的空间相关性,而且在三种不同形式的空间权重矩阵下结论依旧成立;进一步研究发现,数字普惠金融的发展能够显著促进本省经济增长,但是对临近省份存在负向的空间溢出效应,在经过稳健性检验后上述结论依旧成立。此外,结构分析表明覆盖广度、使用深度以及数字化服务支持程度均能有效促进本省经济增长,但其空间溢出效应并不显著。

In the context of the booming development of digital inclusive finance,exploring the impact of China’s digital inclusive finance on provincial economic growth is conducive to further grasp the development direction of digital inclusive finance and provide technical support for the formulation of regional development strategies in the future.Based on the panel data of China’s provinces from 2011 to 2018,this paper explores the impact of China’s digital financial inclusion on provincial economic growth by constructing a spatial econometric model.The results show that digital financial inclusion development and economic growth both show significant spatial correlation,and the conclusion is still valid under three different forms of spatial weight matrix.Further research finds that the improvement of digital financial inclusion can significantly promote the economic growth of the province,but there is a negative spatial spillover effect on neighboring provinces.The above conclusion is still valid after the robustness test.In addition,the structural analysis shows that the coverage breadth,the use depth and the degree of digital service support can effectively promote the economic growth of the province,but the spatial spillover effect is not significant.