如何理解美国经济长期停滞——基于垄断势力集聚视角的述评

A Review of the US Secular Stagnation from the Perspective of Monopoly Power Concentration

2009年以来,美国经济增速一直处于历史低位,国债利率持续走低。与此同时,美国企业的市场平均垄断势力升高,且集聚程度不断提升。与之对应,企业的托宾Q值均值持续上升,且主要是头部企业的估值上升。本文在介绍美国经济发展典型化事实的基础上,从垄断势力加剧的视角,分析美国经济"长期停滞"的原因,旨在加深对美国经济现状的理解。

The US economic growth rate has remained at a historically low level since the economic recovery from 2009, and the interest rate of US Treasury bonds has maintained a downward trend, which means that the US has been in a state of secular stagnation in the past decade. At the same time, the average market power of American firms has continued to strengthen, and the concentration of monopoly power has risen. Correspondingly, the average Tobin Q value of companies continues to rise, and the valuation of leading companies is mainly rising. On the basis of introducing the typified facts of US’ economic development in the past two decades, this article analyzes the reasons for the secular stagnation of the US from the perspective of increasing monopoly power, which has certain significance for understanding the current situation of the US economy.