2020年中国玉米市场形势回顾及2021年展望

Review of China’s Corn Market Situation in 2020 and Its Outlook for 2021

2020年,中国玉米市场出现牛市,国内价格近乎持续上涨。在生猪生产持续向好和玉米生产连续4年调减的背景下,供需博弈剧烈,市场运行新特征明显。2020年中国玉米市场价格步入高位并持续上涨,不断刷新年内新高;玉米生产恢复,进口大幅增加,首次突破配额,创历史最高纪录;玉米消费保持增长态势,优质饲用玉米阶段性供给偏紧常态化。预计2021年,中国玉米生产将持续稳中向好,玉米播种面积有望恢复增加;玉米进口将成为供给调剂的主要渠道;高粱、大麦等替代品饲用消费增加,多元化饲用原料供应体系雏形初显;玉米价格仍将保持高位运行。

In 2020,there was a bull market in China’s corn market,and domestic price almost continued to rise.Under the background of continuous improvement of hog production and the reduction of corn production for four consecutive years,the game between supply and demand was intense,and the new characteristics of market operation were obvious.The main characteristics of corn market in 2020 were as follows:corn market price entered the high level and continued to rise,constantly refreshing the new high within the year;corn production resumed and imports increased significantly,breaking the quota for the first time and hitting a record high;corn consumption maintained a growth trend,and the periodic supply of high-quality forage corn was relatively tight.In 2021,China’s corn production will continue to improve steadily,and the sown area of corn is expected to recover and increase;corn import will become the main channel of supply adjustment;the consumption of substitute feeding materials such as sorghum and barley will increase,and diversified feeding raw material supply system will take shape;corn prices will remain high running.