金砖国家碳排放与经济增长脱钩弹性及驱动因素——基于Tapio脱钩和LMDI模型的分析

Decoupling analysis between energy consumption and economic growth in BRICS countries:Based on Tapio decoupling and LMDI model analysis

在金砖国家低碳转型的压力之下,把握碳排放驱动因素、明确碳排放与经济增长的相关性从而完善减排政策迫在眉睫。基于1987—2017年金砖国家碳排放面板数据,采用Tapio脱钩模型分析经济增长与碳排放的脱钩关系变化,进一步结合IPAT方程和LMDI模型分解影响碳排放量变化的驱动因素。研究表明:金砖国家整体上呈现由负脱钩到弱脱钩再到强脱钩的变化趋势,现阶段中国、印度和俄罗斯碳排放脱钩关系为弱脱钩,南非和巴西的碳排放脱钩分别为强脱钩和扩张负脱钩,金砖国家之间脱钩关系存在阶段性差异;经济强度因素和人口因素是碳排放的主要正向驱动因素,能源强度因素则对碳排放具有抑制作用,金砖国家之间驱动因素的作用程度存在显著差异。因此,可以从增加技术投入、提高能源利用效率、严控高能耗产业、构建减排工作国际合作平台等方面入手促进金砖国家减排。

Based on BRICS carbon emission panel data in 1987-2017, Tapio index model was used to analyze the decoupling relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions, and combines IPAT equation and LMDI model were used to decompose driving factors affecting carbon emissions. Result showed that BRICS countries generally showed a trend of decoupling from weak decoupling to strong decoupling. Decoupling relationships of carbon emissions in China, India and Russia were weak decoupling, while that of South Africa and Brazil were strong and expansion negative decoupling. Economic strength and population factor were main positive drivers of carbon emissions, and energy intensity factor had a restraining effect on carbon emissions. Therefore, increasing technology input, improving energy efficiency and strictly controlling high-energy consumption industries is vital for emission reduction work.