基于AIS数据的“21世纪海上丝绸之路”航行安全风险评估

AIS data-based safety risk assessment on navigation on 21st Century Maritime Silk Road

为有效评估21世纪海上丝绸之路航行风险等级,维护航运安全,对不同季度下的21世纪海上丝绸之路三个核心海区进行了航行安全风险等级评估。基于船舶自动识别系统(AIS)提供的数据,利用云模型理论和评语云模型,构建了2018年霍尔木兹海峡、科伦坡港口及其附近海域和马六甲海峡的航行安全风险评价指标体系,运用熵权法确定了各指标的权重系数,得到了划定海区的航行安全风险等级评估结果。结果显示:三个核心海区的航行安全风险均处于中等危险,其中,以霍尔木兹海峡为核心的海区1在4个季度的海上航行安全风险均为中等;以科伦坡港口为核心的海区2在第1、2和3季度的海上航行安全风险为中等,第4季度为较高;以马六甲海峡为核心的海区3在第1、2和4季度的海上航行安全风险均为中等,第3季度为较低。基于三个核心海区的航行安全风险情况,建议航行过程中,注意大型船舶分布及船舶数量变化情况,做好航行过程中的预警和安全防范工作,降低风险发生概率,从而实现"21世纪海上丝绸之路"的航行安全。

In order to effectively assess the navigation risk level of the 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road for maintaining the navigation safety, the navigation safety risk levels of the three core sea areas of the 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road in different quarters of a year are assessed herein. Based on AIS(Automatic Identification System) data, the navigation safety risk assessment index system for Hormuz Strait, Malacca Strait, Colombo Port and the adjacent waters in 2018 is established by means of the cloud model theory and the evaluation cloud model, and then the weight coefficient of each index is determined with the entropy weight method, thus the results of the safety risk level assessments on the navigation within the delimited sea areas are obtained. The results show that the navigation safety risks of the navigations in all the three core sea areas are on the medium level, among which the safety risks of the maritime navigation within the sea area I with the core of Hormuz Strait in the four quarters of a year are all on the medium level, while the safety risks of the maritime navigation within the sea area II with the core of Colombo Port in the first, second and third quarters of a year are all on the medium level with the higher risk level in the fourth quarter and the safety risks of the maritime navigation within the sea area III with the core of Malacca Strait in the first, second and fourth quarters of a year are all on the medium level with the lower risk level in the third quarter. Based on the navigation safety risks in the three core sea areas, it is suggested that attention is necessary to be paid to the distribution and the change of the number of large ships during navigation, so as to make the early warning and safety prevention well during navigation and lower the risk probability to realize the navigation safety on the 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road.