陆地水资源变化对变暖的响应及其影响因素

Responses of water resources changes to warming and its influencing factors

“干更干、湿更湿”变化范式为理解气候干湿变化提供了一个简化模板。然而,这一范式仅能有效描述受海洋变化影响的全球平均结果。陆地上水资源变化的影响因素众多,存在很大的不确定性,地形复杂地区尤其如此,目前尚未找到高度概括其时空变异规律的方法。本研究总结了全球陆地,尤其是高海拔地区的水资源变化的研究进展,对比了全球气候模式和区域气候模式预估结果的差异,揭示了陆地水资源对变暖的响应机理,并分析了影响陆地水资源变化的主要地表和人类活动因素;提出陆面过程的精确描述以及地表水热状况及其非均匀性的高分辨率精细刻画和模拟,可以为气候系统提供更准确的下边界条件,进而提高地形复杂区域降水空间分布的模拟性能,为陆地尤其是高海拔山区的水资源及其变化研究奠定基础。

The“dry gets drier,wet gets wetter”paradigm has become a template slogan for assessing current and future climate changes.However,the assessment and prediction of this paradigm is mainly the global average result affected by ocean changes,and there is great uncertainty about water resources changes over land,especially in complex terrain areas.This study summarizes the changes of global terrestrial water resources,especially in high altitude areas.Differences between global and regional climate models are compared.The response mechanism of terrestrial water resources to warming is revealed.The main surface and human activity factors that affect the terrestrial water resources change are further analyzed.This paperproposes that the accurate description of land surface processes and the high resolution fine characterization and simulation of surface hydrothermal conditions and their heterogeneity can provide more accurate lower boundary conditions for the climate system.The dynamic downscaling simulation based on the fine description of the boundary conditions under the land surface is an effective way to improve the simulation performance of spatial distribution of precipitation in complex terrain areas,which will lay a foundation for the study of water resources and their changes in land,especially in high altitude mountain areas.