跨境甩挂运输联盟稳定性的演化博弈分析

Research on stability of cross-border drop-and-pull transportation alliance based on evolutionary game theory

目前我国公路进出口贸易增长迅速。鉴于跨境物流对甩挂运输的依赖性以及跨境公路运输的不直通性,不同国家甩挂运输企业便组建了跨境甩挂运输企业联盟来解决此问题。国家间政策、文化、经济的差异与异国企业间的不信任导致跨境甩挂运输企业联盟极易破裂。讨论影响跨境甩挂运输企业联盟稳定性的内外部因素,并建立演化博弈模型对影响联盟稳定性的各参数进行具体分析。研究发现:成立联盟的额外投资金额参数包括甩挂运输设施设备购置费用、联盟甩挂站场以及联盟内的跨境甩挂运输信息平台的建立费用;联盟运行时的风险系数由影响联盟稳定性内外部因素决定。当建立联盟额外投资金额,风险系数以及主动破裂联盟获得的投机收益越小,政府对联盟补贴,主动破裂联盟所需缴纳的罚款以及联盟额外收益越高时,跨境甩挂运输企业联盟越趋于稳定。

At present,China’s highway import and export trade is growing rapidly.Due to the dependence of cross-border logistics on drop-and-pull transportation and the incompatibility of cross-border road transportation,different countries drop-and-pull companies need to form a cross-border drop-and-pull transportation enterprise alliance to solve this problem.The differences in policy,culture and economy between countries and mistrust of transnational companies may leads to a breakdown of cross-border drop-and-pull transportation companies.This paper discusses the internal and external factors affecting the stability of cross-border transportation enterprises,and establishes an evolutionary game model to analyze the parameters affecting the stability of the alliance.The study finds that the additional investment amount parameter of the establishment of the alliance included the cost of purchasing equipment for the transportation facilities,the establishment cost of the alliance’s drop-and-pull station and the cross-border transportation information platform within the alliance;the risk coefficient of the alliance operation is affected by the alliance’s internal and external factors.When establishing the alliance’s additional investment amount,the risk factor and the speculative income obtained by the active rupture alliance are smaller,the government subsidizes the alliance,and the fines and the alliance additional income required to actively rupture the alliance are higher,cross-border drop-and-pull transportation enterprise alliance becomes more stable.