2001—2020年河北省鼠疫自然疫源地长爪沙鼠与达乌尔黄鼠密度变化趋势研究

Study on the density change trend of Meriones unguiculatus and Spermophilus dauricus in the plague natural foci in Hebei Province from 2001 to 2020

目的研究2001—2020年河北省鼠疫自然疫源地长爪沙鼠与达乌尔黄鼠密度变化规律,为动物间鼠疫防控提供依据。方法整理2001—2020年河北省鼠疫自然疫源地宿主监测数据,采用描述流行病学法分析长爪沙鼠、达乌尔黄鼠年密度变化,动态数列法分析长爪沙鼠月、年密度变化,GM(1,1)模型预测2021年长爪沙鼠年密度。结果2001—2020年河北省鼠疫自然疫源地长爪沙鼠年平均密度为0.05~3.90只/hm^(2),达乌尔黄鼠年平均密度为0.08~0.66只/hm^(2)。长爪沙鼠月平均密度为0.02~2.54只/hm^(2),3月、10月为密度高峰期,10月环比发展速度(1950.00%)、增长速度(1850.00%)最快。长爪沙鼠年密度定基平均增长量为-2.20~1.65只/hm^(2),2001—2006年环比增长量波动较大,年密度环比发展速度以3~6年为周期呈U或V型变化。预测2021年长爪沙鼠年密度为0.056只/hm^(2)。结论2001—2020年河北省鼠疫自然疫源地长爪沙鼠和达乌尔黄鼠鼠种数量优势演替存在,近几年长爪沙鼠密度较低。长爪沙鼠密度高于达乌尔黄鼠密度,长爪沙鼠密度波动幅度增大可增加动物间鼠疫发生风险。

Objective To study the change of density of Meriones unguiculatus and Spermophilus dauricus in the plague natural foci in Hebei Province from 2001 to 2020,and to provide basis for the prevention and control of plague in animals.Methods The host monitoring data of plague natural foci in Hebei Province from 2001 to 2020 were collected.The annual density changes of Meriones unguiculatus and Spermophilus dauricus were analyzed with descriptive epidemiology,and the monthly and annual density changes of Meriones unguiculatus were analyzed with dynamic series.GM(1,1)model was used to predict the annual density of Meriones unguiculatus in 2021.Results From 2001 to 2020,the annual average density of Meriones unguiculatus and Spermophilus dauricus in the plague natural foci in Hebei Province were 0.05-3.90 insects per hectare and 0.08-0.66 insects per hectare respectively.The monthly average density of Meriones unguiculatus was 0.02-2.54 insects per hectare,with peaks in March and October.In October,the month on month development rate(1950.00%)and the increase rate(1850.00%)were the fastest.The fixed base average increase of annual density of Meriones unguiculatus was-2.20-1.65 insects per hectare.From 2001 to 2006,the ring growth volume fluctuated greatly,and the annual density development speed changed in a U or V-shape with a period of 3-6 years.The annual average density of Meriones unguiculatus in 2021 was predicted as much as 0.056 insects per hectare.Conclusion There was a succession of quantity advantage between Meriones unguiculatus and Spermophilus dauricus in the natural plague foci in Hebei Province from 2001 to 2020.In recent years,the density of Meriones unguiculatus was low.The density of Meriones unguiculatus was higher than that of Spermophilus dauricus,and the increase of density fluctuation may increase the risk of animal plague.