我国城镇化进程的驱动因素分解及阶段性变化——基于LMDI模型的再检验

Measurement and Decomposition Analysis on the Driving Factors of Urbanization in China:Reexamination Based on LMDI Model

基于2000-2018年省际面板数据,运用LMDI分解模型考察城镇化驱动因素及其阶段性变化特征。研究结果表明:观测期内我国人口城镇化水平稳步提升主要得益于经济增长与产业调整的“激励性”作用。人口密度增长与土地利用效率是城镇化进程的“过度性损失”因素,对人口城镇化有显著的抑制作用。经济增长与土地利用效率对城镇化的影响效应存在较强的阶段性波动,且两者之间表现出了此消彼长的变化关系。同时,经济增长与产业调整的驱动效应对重大突发事件具有明显的敏感性。从不同地区来看,东部和东北地区经济增长对城镇化进程有着更强的驱动效应,但这种驱动效应是以牺牲城市空间承载能力和土地资源为代价;中西部地区的城镇化进程则主要受制于土地资源的粗放利用。

Based on the provincial panel data from 2000-2018,this essay uses the LMDI decomposition model to analyze the stage change of urbanization influencing factors.The results show that:during the observation period,the steady improvement of population urbanization benefited from economic growth and industrial adjustment.Population density and land factors have a significant inhibitory effect on population urbanization.The effect of economic growth and land factors on urbanization has strong periodic fluctuation.When one is rising,the other one is falling.In addition,the impact of economic growth and industrial adjustment has significant sensitivity to major emergencies.From different regions,the economic growth in the east and northeast has a stronger driving effect on the urbanization process,but the driving effect at the expense of urban space carrying capacity and land resources.The central and western is mainly affected by the extensive use of land resources.