上海市长宁区1988—2013年肾癌、膀胱癌发病和死亡趋势分析

Incidence and Mortality Trends of Kidney and Bladder Cancer in Changning District of Shanghai,1988—2013

[目的]分析1988—2013年上海市长宁区居民肾癌、膀胱癌发病和死亡的现况和时间变化趋势。[方法]根据上海市长宁区1988—2013年的肾癌、膀胱癌发病、死亡人数,计算相应的粗率、世标率等指标。利用Joinpoint软件分析世标发病率/死亡率的时间变化趋势,计算年度变化百分比(APC)。应用年龄—时期—队列模型,评估这3个因素对发病率/死亡率变化的影响。[结果]1988—2013年期间,上海市长宁区肾癌世标发病率呈上升趋势,男、女性APC分别为7.11%和3.85%,男性肾癌死亡率显著上升(APC=3.64%);膀胱癌中仅女性死亡率显著下降(APC=-3.29%)。年龄—时期—队列模型结果提示,随着年龄的增大,肾癌、膀胱癌的发病率和死亡率均呈上升趋势;肾癌发病率还同时受到时期、队列效应的影响(P值均<0.05)。[结论]1988—2013年上海市长宁区居民的肾癌、膀胱癌的发病率和死亡率均随年龄增加而逐渐上升,提示中老年人群是防治工作的重点。

[Purpose]To analyze the time trends of incidence and mortality rates for kidney and bladder cancer in Changning District of Shanghai,1988—2013.[Methods]Based on the cancer registration data of incidence and mortality in Changning District of Shanghai from 1988 to 2013,the crude rates and the age-standardized rates(ASRs)by world standard populations were calculated.Joinpoint regression was applied to analyze the trends of incidence and mortality and to calculate the annual percentage changes(APC).The age-period-cohort model was used to evaluate the contribution of age,period and cohort effects on the incidence and mortality trends of kidney and bladder cancer.[Results]From 1988 to 2013,the age-standardized incidence rates of kidney cancer increased with APC of 7.11%for males and 3.85%for females in Changning District of Shanghai.In male,the APC of mortality rate of kidney cancer was 3.64%.In bladder cancer,there was a significantly downward trend in mortality rates of female(APC=-3.29%).The age-period-cohort analysis showed the incidence and mortality rates of kidney and bladder cancer increased with age.Also,the effects of period and birth cohort had impacts on the kidney cancer incidence rate(P<0.05).[Conclusion]During 1988—2013,the incidence and mortality rates of kidney and bladder cancer increased with age in Changning District of Shanghai,which suggests that the elderly people are the key population for the prevention of kidney and bladder cancer.