保险业务结构的同质化对财险业系统性风险的影响

An Analysis on the Impacts of Insurance Business Structural Homogeneity to P&C Insurance Industry Systemic Risk

本文在保险业务结构的基础上考虑了保险业务的相关性,提出了保险业务结构同质化的概念,并由此建立了保险业务结构与系统性风险的理论模型。理论推导认为,保险业务结构同质化程度较高的保险市场具有较高的系统性风险。进而,以财险业为研究对象,基于实务数据衡量了不同样本年保险业务结构的同质化程度,整体上具有震荡下行的微弱趋势。然后进行了模拟分析,检验结果进一步证实了理论模型推导的结论。从财险业层面来看,保险市场上保险业务结构的同质化程度与系统性风险水平具有显著的正相关关系。在同质化较为严重的保险市场上,发生相同金额的承保损失时,可能有更多的保险公司面临破产。因此,监管机构应当重视维持保险市场上的多样性和专业性,降低保险业务结构的同质化程度,避免保险公司发生共振,促进保险行业更健康稳定地发展。

Based on insurance business structure,and considering the correlation of insurance business,this paper put forward the concept of structural homogeneity of insurance business,and thus established a theoretical model of insurance business structure and systemic risk.The theoretical derivation showed that the insurance market with a higher degree of structural homogeneity of insurance business had higher systemic risk.Furthermore,taking property insurance industry as the research subject,and based on practical statistics,the degree of structural homogeneity of insurance business in different sample years was measured,and there was a weak downward trend overall.Then a simulation analysis was conducted,and the empirical result further confirmed the conclusion derived from the theoretical model.From the perspective of the property insurance industry,there was a significantly positive correlation between the degree of structural homogeneity of insurance business and the level of systemic risk in the insurance market.In a relatively high homogeneity insurance market,more insurance companies would go bankrupt when the same amount of underwriting losses occurred.Therefore,regulators should pay attention to maintaining the diversity and professionalism in the insurance market,reducing the degree of structural homogeneity of insurance business,and avoiding the resonance of insurance companies,so that the insurance industry can develop healthily and steadily.