基于多元线性回归的山东省粮食生产影响因素分析

Analysis on Influencing Factors of Grain Production in Shandong Province Based on Principal Component-Multiple Linear Regression

根据山东省粮食生产的实际环境,结合学者相关研究,从自然资源、社会经济环境、农业生产条件三方面归纳出山东省粮食产量增长各影响因素,用多元线性方程分析其贡献值。用SPSS 22.0软件对原始数据进行相关性分析,去掉极弱相关因素后检查多重共线性,选择主成分分析法解决多重共线性问题,得出粮食单产影响因素的方程以及各影响因素的贡献值。根据结论,为稳定粮食产量,保障粮食安全提出相关建议。

According to the actual environment of grain production in Shandong Province,combined with the related research of scholars,the factors influencing the growth of grain output in Shandong Province were summarized from the three aspects of natural resources,social and economic environment and agricultural production conditions,and their contribution values were analyzed with multiple linear equations.The SPSS 22.0 software was used to analyze the correlation of the original data,check the multicollinearity after removing the extremely weak correlation factors,and choose the principal component analysis method to solve the multicollinearity problem.The equation of the influencing factors of grain yield per unit area and the contribution value of each influencing factor were obtained.According to the conclusion,some suggestions are put forward to stabilize grain output and ensure food security.