交通影响分析中的需求量预测方法探究——以宜昌市猇亭区为例

Exploring the Demand Forcast Method in Traffic Impact Analysis:Taking Xiaoting District of Yichang City as an Example

在交通影响评价的过程中,背景交通需求预测是不可或缺的环节。我国中小城市由于建设程度较低,基础数据常常较为缺乏,难以按照常规发展模式根据现状交通预测未来年限内的背景交通,从而计算交通需求。该文拟探讨此种条件下的交通需求预测方式,并以宜昌市猇亭区某建设项目交通影响评价中的需求预测模块为例,沿用四阶段法模型,并参考建设项目交通影响评价相关规范进行实际运用的探讨。

In the process of traffic impact evaluation,background traffic demand forecast is an indispensable part.Not only is the premise and foundation of constructive improvement measures are put forward,as the data support,more help to improve the traffic impact assessment index system.For small and medium-sized cities in China,due to the low degree of construction,fundamental data often is relatively lack,especially land development model is relatively single,difficult to use the conventional development mode to predict the future traffic demand.This paper intends to discuss the traffic demand prediction mode under such conditions,and takes the demand prediction module of a construction project traffic impact assessment in Xiaoting District,Yichang City as an example to discuss the practical application,using the four-stage method of commonly used domestic model and referring to the relevant norms of traffic impact assessment of construction projects.