基于GeoSOS-FLUS模型的河北省土地利用景观格局模拟

Simulation of landscape pattern for land use in Hebei province based on GeoSOS-FLUS model

揭示土地利用景观格局演变特征,不仅有助于明确其与自然、人类活动影响因素的关系,还可为当前国土空间规划及生态文明建设提供依据。本研究以面临新发展机遇的河北省为研究区,利用GeoSOS-FLUS模型模拟2030年土地利用情况,基于景观生态学软件Fragstats探讨区域景观格局演变态势。结果表明:(1)在模拟结果层面,河北省未来建设用地占比增至11.94%,林地、草地面积略有增加,耕地、水域和未利用地占比降至46.35%、2.62%、0.71%,Kappa系数和FoM系数的计算结果均说明GeoSOS-FLUS模型的模拟结果具有较高可信度。(2)在景观格局层面,耕地平均斑块面积下降明显,林地、建设用地优势度提升,草地、水域被不断分割;区域整体蔓延度指数降低,分裂指数由1990年的9.37增至2020年的12.71,景观格局变化具有空间异质性。在现行土地政策机制下,2030年景观格局虽向良性态势发展,但依然面临建设用地无序扩张,耕地破碎化严重等问题。本研究结果对于合理规划、高效利用土地资源,平衡经济发展和土地利用具有重要的现实意义。

Revealing the evolution characteristics of landscape pattern for land use can not only help to clarify its relationship with the influencing factors of nature and human activities,but can also provide basis for current territorial space planning and ecological civilization construction.This study took Hebei province,which was facing new development opportunities,as the research area,and used GeoSOS-FLUS model to simulate its land use situation in 2030.The research was based on the landscape ecology software Fragstats to discuss the evolution of regional landscape pattern.The results showed that the proportion of future construction land in Hebei province increased to 11.94%,the area of woodland and grassland increased slightly,and the proportion of cultivated land,water area and unused land decreased to 46.35%,2.62%,0.71%,respectively.Both Kappa coefficient and FoM coefficient showed that the reliability of GeoSOS-FLUS model simulated results was high.From landscape pattern aspect,the average patch area of cultivated land had dropped significantly,advantages of forest land and construction land were improved,grassland and waters were continuously divided.The overall regional spreading index decreased,and the split index increased from 9.37 in 1990 to 12.71 in 2020.The space difference of landscape pattern changes was significant.Under the current land policy mechanism,although the landscape pattern for 2030 developed in a positive trend,it still faced problems such as disorderly expansion of construction land and serious fragmentation of cultivated land.These results have practical significance for rational planning and efficient use of land resources as well as balancing economic development and land use.