大汶河流域土地利用变化特征及预测

Characteristics and Prediction of Land Use Changes in the Dawen River Basin

以大汶河流域为例,通过分析土地利用变化转移矩阵,计算土地利用变化动态度和转移状态;结合元胞自动机-马尔科夫模型,对大汶河流域土地利用格局进行模拟,并对2030年土地利用变化进行预测。结果表明:1985—2017年间研究区土地利用动态度为0.91,土地利用转移状态为0.27,土地利用整体属于弱平衡型转换,其中水体、耕地和草地面积缓慢增加,建筑用地面积明显扩大,林地面积显著减小,未利用地呈逆向转换,说明大汶河流域城市化进程处于不断扩张阶段;2030年研究区建筑用地、草地面积将有所增加,林地面积将大幅度减少,耕地、未利用地以及水体面积基本不变。

Taking the Dawen River basin as an example,dynamic degree and transfer state of land use changes were calculated by analyzing transfer matrices of land use changes.Combined with cellular automata-Markov model,land use pattern of the Dawen River basin was simulated,and land use changes in 2030 were predicted.The results show that from 1985 to 2017,the dynamic degree of land use in the study area is 0.91,and the transfer state of land use is 0.27.The whole land use belongs to weak balance type transformation.The area of water body,cultivated land,and grassland increases slowly,the area of construction land increases obviously,the area of forest land decreases significantly,and the unused land shows a reverse transformation,which indicate that the urbanization process of the Dawen River basin is in a continuous expansion stage.In 2030,the area of construction land and grassland in the study area will increase,the area of woodland will decrease significantly,and the area of cultivated land,unused land,and water body will remain unchanged.