环境规制、技术创新与工业煤耗强度的互动效应

Interactive Effect of Environmental Regulation,Technological Innovation,and Industrial Coal Consumption Intensity

文章运用Tapio弹性系数法测算2006—2017年中国工业煤耗强度与环境规制、技术创新之间的脱钩指数,分析工业煤耗强度与环境规制、技术创新间的脱钩状态,并通过构建VAR模型研究环境规制、技术创新与工业煤耗强度的协整关系及内在联系。结果显示:工业煤耗强度与环境规制、技术创新之间均呈现“震荡波动”到“脱钩持续”的演变趋势;环境规制、技术创新与工业煤耗强度三者间存在协整关系,而环境规制与技术创新之间存在非协整关系,未能够通过倒逼技术创新间接降低工业煤耗强度;环境规制和技术创新短期内均能有效降低工业煤耗强度,但长期对工业煤耗强度的影响效果不显著;环境规制和技术创新均能有效预测工业煤耗强度的变动。据此提出政策建议:通过完善环境规制和技术创新指标,提高长期规制效果;通过推进能源市场机制和加强创新投入,并配合产业规制措施,促进工业煤耗强度的降低。

This paper uses Tapio elastic coefficient method to calculate the decoupling index among industrial coal consumption intensity,environmental regulation,and technological innovation in China from 2006 to 2017,analyzes the decoupling state among industrial coal consumption intensity,environmental regulation,and technological innovation,and studies the cointegration relationship and internal relationship among environmental regulation,technological innovation,and industrial coal consumption intensity by constructing VAR model.The results show that the relationship among industrial coal consumption intensity,environmental regulation,and technological innovation presents an evolution trend from"fluctuations"to"continuous decoupling";there is a cointegration relationship among environmental regulation,technological innovation,and industrial coal consumption intensity,"while there is a non cointegration relationship between environmental regulation and technological innovation,that is,environmental regulation cannot indirectly reduce the intensity of industrial coal consumption by forcing technological innovation;environmental regulation and technological innovation can effectively reduce the intensity of industrial coal consumption in the short term,but the effect on the intensity of industrial coal consumption is not significant in the long term;environmental regulation and technological innovation can effectively predict the change of industrial coal consumption intensity.Based on this,the paper puts forward policy suggestions:improve the long-term regulatory effect by improving environmental regulation and technological innovation indicators;by promoting the energy market mechanism and strengthening innovation investment,and cooperating with industrial regulation measures,the intensity of industrial coal consumption can be reduced.