开垦河6-8月平均流量有序回归分析与预报

Ordinal Regression Analysis and Forecast of Average Discharge from June to August in Kaiken River

开垦河位于新疆奇台县境内,发源于东天山博格达山脉北坡,开垦河水文站是其水量控制站。本文选用开垦河水文站1960-2019年6-8月平均流量并构建为分类因变量(预报对象),5月下旬旬平均气温、4月下旬旬平均流量和4月上旬降水量为预报因子,用SPSS进行有序回归分析,对2020年6-8月平均流量各类可能发生的概率进行预报,结果令人满意。

Kaiken River is located in Qitai County,Xinjiang.It originates from the north slope of the Bogeda Mountains in the eastern section of Tianshan Mountain.The hydrologic station of Kaiken River is water control station of Kaiken River.In this paper,the average discharge from June to August during the period 1960~2019 at the Kaiken River hydrologic station was selected and constructed as classified dependent variables(forecast objects).The average temperature in late May,average discharge in late April and precipitation in early April were the forecast factors.Ordinal regression analysis was carried out with SPSS.And the probabilities of various types of average discharge from June to August in 2020 were predicted.The results were satisfactory.