基于VAR模型的山西生猪产业供给影响因素分析

Analysis of Factors Affecting Industrial Supply of Live Pig in Shanxi Province Based on VAR Model

采用脉冲响应函数和方差分解的分析方法,基于猪肉价格、生产成本等方面的时间序列数据,测算了相关因素变动对山西生猪供给情况的影响。研究表明,猪肉市场价格变动对山西生猪供给量影响较弱,但可繁衍母猪数量对山西生猪供给量影响较强。因此,在制定生猪扶持政策时,从“稳预期、稳政策、稳供给”角度出发,走标准化规模化养殖道路,持续增强生猪产业供给能力和抗风险能力。

Based on the time series data of pork price and production cost,the impact of correlative factors on the supply of live pigs in Shanxi Province was calculated by using impulse response function and variance decomposition.The results showed that the price fluctuation of pork market had a weak effect on the pig supply,but the number of fertile sows had a strong effect on the pig supply.Therefore,in the formulation of pig support policy,from the‘stable expectations,stable policy,stable supply’point of view,we should take the standardized large-scale breeding road,continue to enhance the supply capacity of pig industry and anti-risk capacity.