中国的姓氏、籍贯和长期代际流动性(1645-2012)

Surname,Place of Origin and Social Mobility in China(1645-2012)

本文拓展了Clark et al.(2015)提出的用姓氏测算社会流动性的方法,以姓氏和籍贯的组合来识别精英,测算了中国核心区域不同时期的社会流动性。本文的发现是:第一,清代大部分时期的代际相关性较高(0.73-0.85),即社会流动性较低。第二,民国和新中国时期,代际相关性有所下降,但是幅度有限(0.65-0.75)。第三,现代中国的代际相关性,显著高于常规方法基于个人和家庭水平数据测算的代际相关性(0.3-0.6)。

This study adapts surname methods proposed in Clark et al.(2014)to the case of China and estimates the rate of intergenerational correlation of status in Late Imperial,Republican and Communist China.Using surnames and places of origin to identify elite groups and examining the changing social status of originally elite groups over time,we find relatively high intergenerational correlation of social status in the Qing dynasty(0.73-0.85),and slightly lower correlation in the Republican and Communist eras(0.65-0.75).But even in the Communist era the correlation is much higher than are conventional estimates(0.3-0.6),where status is partially measured by income,wealth and education at individual or household level.