灾害冲击与国家能力塑造——来自历史四川的证据(公元前26—公元1905年)

Disaster Shocks and the Shaping of State Capacity——Evidence from Historical Sichuan(26BC-1905AD)

理解灾害冲击对地区公共品提供的影响对于探讨政府公共服务水平与国家能力而言具有重要意义。本文利用四川县(区)级层面的历史地震数据,实证检验了地震冲击对于地方公共品提供的长期影响。结果发现,历史性地震灾害对于地方公共品提供具有显著促进作用,且随灾害破坏效应的增强而呈递增趋势。我们认为,该结果与中原王朝的国家能力强化有关,历史上的威权国家能力塑造对当今该地区公共品提供具有重要解释力度。

Understanding the impact of disaster shocks on local provision of public goods is important for exploring the government public services and state capacities.This study empirically tests the long-term impact of earthquake shocks on supply of local public goods by using historical data at Sichuan county level.It is found historical earthquakes significantly promote the provision of the latter which would increases with more damage effects.The results are believed to be related to the improvement of dynasty’s state capacity.The historic authoritarian state capacity has important explanatory powers for this causal relationship.