土地财政和土地市场发育对城市房价的影响

Impact of Land Finance and Land Market Development on Urban Housing Price

在分析土地财政、土地市场发育以及两者交互作用对城市房价影响机理的基础上,采用2003—2017年282个地级市的面板数据和动态空间杜宾模型,实证检验土地财政、土地市场发育以及两者交互作用对城市房价的影响。考察了东中西部地区的异质性影响。研究结果表明:城市房价存在显著的空间溢出效应;土地财政和土地市场发育对房价的直接影响和空间溢出效应均显著为正;土地市场发育在土地财政与房价的影响过程中存在调节作用,强化了土地财政对房价的影响。从空间溢出效应来看,土地市场发育在空间上存在负向调节作用,抑制了房价上涨;东中西部地区土地财政和土地市场发育对房价的影响存在异质性。提出房地产市场的改革需要地方财政体制改革和土地市场化改革等措施的互相配合。

The purpose of this article is to empirically test the impact of land finance, land market development and the interaction between the two on urban housing prices. In addition, this article also investigates the heterogeneous effects of the eastern, central, and western regions. The research method is to first analyze the impact of land finance, land market development and the interaction of the two on urban housing prices, and propose the research hypotheses. Secondly, we use the Dynamic Spatial Dubin Model to test the hypothesis based on the panel data of 282 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2017. The results suggest that:There is a spatial spillover effect on urban housing prices;The direct impact and space spillover effects of land finance and land market development on housing prices are both significantly positive;The land market development plays a regulating role in the impact of land finance on housing prices, and strengthens the impact of land finance on housing prices;However, from the perspective of spatial spillover effects, the development of the land market has a negative regulatory effect on space, which has restrained the rise in housing prices;There are differences in the impact of land finance and land market development on housing prices in eastern, central,and western regions. In conclusion, the real estate market reform requires the cooperation of local fiscal system reform and land market reform.