城市群能带动区域经济增长吗?——基于7个国家级城市群的实证分析

Can Urban Agglomeration Drive Regional Economic Growth? Empirical Analysis Based on Seven State-level Urban Agglomerations

将城市群视为一项区域经济政策,利用双重差分法评估7个国家级城市群对区域经济增长的带动作用。研究发现:(1)城市群能够有效带动区域经济增长,7个城市群每年带动的平均经济增长率约为0.56%。其中,南方四大城市群对区域经济增长的带动作用非常明显,加入城市群的城市比未加入的城市每年的经济增长率要高0.92%。(2)北方三大城市群对区域经济增长的带动作用并不明显。(3)城市群对区域经济增长的影响由核心城市的溢出效应和虹吸效应共同作用,与空间距离和核心城市经济水平相关。(4)七大城市群、南方城市群和北方城市群对区域经济增长的影响和空间距离的关系依次表现为"倒N型""倒U型"和"U型"。(5)核心城市经济水平越高、城市竞争力越强,城市群对区域经济增长的带动效用越大。基于研究结论,文章提出科学选择城市群区位、合理规划城市群空间范围、协调城市群内城际关系和统筹区域经济协调发展四条政策建议。

This paper regards urban agglomeration as a regional economic policy,and evaluates the effect of this policy on regional economic growth by using differences-in-differences model. The results show that: 1) Urban agglomeration can effectively promote regional economic growth, and the promotion effect of seven state-level urban agglomerations is about 0.56% per year. Among them,the four urban agglomerations in the south of China have a very obvious effect on the regional economic growth,the annual economic growth rate of the cities joining the urban agglomeration is 0.92% higher than the cities not joining. 2) The effect of the three urban agglomerations in the north on the regional economic growth is not obvious. 3) The impact of urban agglomeration on regional economic growth is affected by spillover effect and siphon effect of core cities. It is related to spatial distance and economic level of core cities. 4) The influence of seven state-level urban agglomerations, southern urban agglomerations and northern urban agglomerations on regional economic growth and their spatial distances shows the characteristics of "inverted N-shaped" curve, "inverted U-shaped" curve and "Ushaped" curve. 5) The higher the economic level of core cities or the stronger competitiveness of core cities,the greater the effect of urban agglomeration on regional economic growth. Based on the research conclusions, this paper puts forward four policy suggestions: scientific choice of urban agglomeration location, reasonable planning of urban agglomeration spatial scope, coordination of city relations within urban agglomeration and coordinated development of regional economy.