中国城乡居民消费的空间结构演变及城镇化影响

Spatial Structure Evolution of Urban and Rural Residents’ Consumption and the Impact of Urbanization in China

运用我国1998—2018年31个省份面板数据,首先将时间划分为四个阶段,将消费分为八大类,基于莫兰散点图分析城乡居民消费的空间结构演变规律;其次,采用空间杜宾模型分析城镇化对城乡居民消费的影响。空间结构演变分析发现:城镇居民人均消费在空间上呈现增强趋势,但交通、教育和医疗消费在第四阶段(2013—2018:经济新常态)的"虹吸效应"减弱,空间集聚状态呈现出高高、低低集聚形态;农村居民的交通、教育和医疗消费结构与城镇相似,但其空间结构较为稳定,变化趋势不大。空间杜宾模型检验中发现:城镇化对城乡居民消费影响显著,存在正向直接效应,对城乡居民消费存在较强的负向空间溢出效应。中国地域广阔,为保证区域协调发展,应避免较强的"虹吸效应",保证经济要素有效流动,促使要素资源在城乡及省域之间多向流动;各省份需要提高自身发展能力,通过新型城镇化建设促进就业,提高居民收入,促进居民消费,从而避免消费等资源外流。

Based on the data of 31 provinces and cities from 1998 to 2018, this paper firstly divides the time period into four stages and classifies the total consumption into eight categories, then analyzes the spatial structure evolution of urban and rural residents’ consumption with the Moran index. Based on the panel data of provinces and cities from 2008 to 2018,it adopts the spatial Durbin model to analyze the impact of urbanization on urban and rural residents’ consumption. In the evolution of spatial structure,it is found that the per capita consumption of urban residents presents an increasing trend in space, but the "siphon effect" of consumption in transportation, education and medical care are weakened in the fourth stage which is the new normal of China’s economy from 2013 to 2018. Besides, the spatial agglomeration shows an uneven trend. The structure of rural residents’ consumption in transportation,education and medical treatment is similar to that in cities and towns,but its spatial structure is relatively stable with little change. In the spatial Durbin model test,it is found that urbanization has a significant positive direct impact on the consumption of urban and rural residents, and a strong spatial spillover effect on the consumption of urban and rural residents. To ensure the coordinated development between different regions, China should avoid a strong "siphon effect", ensure the effective mobilization of economic factors,and promote the multi-directional flow of resources between urban and rural areas and provinces. From the aspect of provinces and cities, it need to improve their own development capacity to promote employment, increase residents’ income and promote residents’ consumption by building a new type of urbanization, so as to avoid the outflow of consumption and other resources.