洞庭湖流域水资源承载力时空演变分析

Spatial-temporal Evolution of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Dongting Lake Basin

根据湖南省洞庭湖生态环境监测中心监测数据、湖南省水资源公报和湖南省统计年鉴,构建洞庭湖流域水资源—水环境—社会经济三维评级指标体系,采用层次分析法和熵权法组合赋权的TOPSIS模型,对2009—2018年洞庭湖流域水资源承载力进行测算,进而分析洞庭湖流域水资源承载力的时间演变和空间分布特征。结果表明:(1)2009—2018年,洞庭湖流域水资源承载力整体由良好等级下降为合理等级,其中藕池河、虎渡河、松滋河流域水资源承载力明显下降。(2)2018年洞庭湖流域水资源承载力空间分布存在明显差异,澧水、西洞庭湖水资源承载力处于良好等级,湘江、藕池河、虎渡河、松滋河、东洞庭湖处于超载等级,沅水、资江与南洞庭湖水资源承载力处于合理等级,洞庭湖流域水资源承载力空间分布排序依次为澧水>资江>洞庭湖区>沅水>湘江>松滋河>藕池河>虎渡河。最后根据洞庭湖流域水资源承载力时间演变与空间分布及其成因提出改善洞庭湖流域水资源承载力的政策建议。

Based on data from Dongting Lake Eco-Environment Monitoring Center of Hunan Province,Water Resources Bulletin Hunan Province,and Hunan Statistical Yearbook,this paper constructs a three-dimensional rating index system for water resources system,water environment system and socioeconomic system. The water resources carrying capacity(WRCC) of Dongting Lake Basin from 2009 to 2018 is evaluated by the TOPSIS model combined with analytic hierarchy process(AHP) and entropy weight,and then the temporal evolution and spatial distribution characteristics of the WRCC of the Dongting Lake Basin are analyzed. The results show that: 1) The WRCC in the Dongting Lake Basin decreases from a good level to a reasonable during the period. Among them,the WRCC of the Ouchi River,Hudu River,and Songzi River Basins decreases significantly. 2) There are obvious spatial differences in the WRCC of the Dongting Lake Basin in2018,the carrying capacity of Lishui and West Dongting Lake are at a good level,and Xiangjiang River,Ouchi River,Hudu River, Songzi River and East Dongting Lake are at an overload level, and Yuanshui River, Zijiang River and South Dongting Lake are at a reasonable level. The order of WRCC from the high level to the low is Lishui River,Zijiang River,Dongting Lake District, Yuanshui River, Xiangjiang River, Songzi River, Ouchi River, Hudu River. At last, some policy recommendations for improving the WRCC of the Dongting Lake Basin are proposed.