地铁票价优惠政策对乘客错峰出行行为的影响模型

Influence Model of Metro Fare Preferential Policies on Passenger’s Off-peak Travel Behavior

以北京市地铁乘客刷卡数据为基础,分析了典型站点在票价优惠政策实施前后,进站客流量的时间分布变化.通过行为调查与意向调查相结合的方式探究对于选择优惠时段出行与出行者个体属性和出行特征之间的关系,建立了乘客出行Logit模型揭示出行者出行时间转移到优惠时段的选择机理,得出:票价优惠政策对乘客错峰出行行为受职业、收入、出行优惠时间差、工作时间弹性及出行时长影响:优惠截止时刻每错后15 min,就会增加10%左右的高峰时段出行者转移到优惠时段出行;当票价优惠为3折、优惠截止时间为07:00时,意愿转移率在50%;车厢拥挤度每下降5%,转移意愿就会增加4%.

Based on the data of Beijing subway passengers swiping their cards,this paper analyzed the time distribution changes of inbound passenger flow of typical stations before and after the implementation of fare preferential policies.Through the combination of behavior survey and intention survey,this paper explored the relationship between choosing preferential time travel and traveler’s individual attributes and travel characteristics,and established the Logit model of passenger travel to reveal the selection mechanism of traveler’s travel time shifting to preferential time.The results show that the fare preferential policies are affected by occupation,income,travel preferential time difference,working time flexibility and travel time.Every 15 minutes after the splitting time,about 10%of travelers in peak hours will be transferred to the discount period.When the fare discount is 30%and the discount deadline is 07:00,the willingness transfer rate is 50%.For every 5%decrease in car congestion,the willingness to transfer will increase by 4%.The research provides a good analytical support for the formulation of preferential policies,the adjustment of strategies and the analysis of expected results.