婚姻推迟、婚内生育率对中国生育水平的影响--基于对总和生育率分解的研究

The Influence of Marriage Delay and Birth within Marriage on Fertility Level in China:Based on Decomposition Model of Total Fertility Rate

本研究利用2017年全国生育状况抽样调查数据,基于总和生育率分解模型,定量测算女性已婚比例和婚内生育率对总和生育率变动的影响。结果显示:2006年以来中国女性婚姻推迟现象十分明显,女性已婚比例的持续下降始终对总和生育率产生拉低作用且拉低作用的强度在不断增大;婚内生育率对总和生育率总体上产生提升作用,但在部分年份受生肖效应等因素的影响产生了拉低作用。分年龄来看,育龄妇女已婚比例对年龄别生育率的拉低作用体现在30岁以下的绝大多数年龄上且发挥拉低作用的峰值年龄在不断提高;年龄别婚内生育率对总和生育率的影响主要在20岁至35岁这一年龄段,除部分年份受生肖效应等因素影响为负向作用,其他时期大多发挥了较强的提升作用。女性已婚比例和婚内生育率对总和生育率的影响幅度在2011年之后显著增强,2011年以来是中国女性婚育特征开始发生显著变化的一个时期,这可能是中国生育政策调整、经济社会发展等多重因素共同作用的结果。总的来看,近年来中国总和生育率内部结构已经发生了显著变化,青年女性婚姻推迟现象显著,生育旺盛期女性在婚比例不断下降,婚内生育率仍保持在相对较高的水平。随着育龄妇女队列结构的变化,婚姻推迟将成为引起中国低生育率风险的重要因素。

By using the 2017 National Fertility Survey Data and based on the decomposition model,the cur⁃rent paper analyses the influence of the proportion of married women and the marital fertility rate on the total fertility rate(TFR).The research shows that,the phenomenon of female marriage delay is quite obvi⁃ous,the continuous decline in the proportion of married women has been always exerted a drag on the TFR since 2006,and the intensity keeps increasing.The marital fertility rate has an upward effect on the TFR.However,in some years,it has a downward effect due to the effect of Chinese zodiac.By age,the drag effect of the proportion of married women on the fertility rate is reflected in the majority of ages under 30 years old,and the peak of age-related drag effect is increasing;The effect of marital fertility rate on TFR is main⁃ly seen in the 20 to 35 age group.The effect is positive in most of the years except some are negative which may be caused by the effect of Chinese zodiac.The influence of the proportion of married women and the marital fertility rate on the TFR increased significantly after 2011,there has been a significant change in the characteristics of Chinese women’s marriage and childbearing since 2011,which may be the result of the combined effect of adjustment of the family planning policy and socioeconomic factors.On the whole,the internal structure of China’s TFR has changed significantly in recent years.The proportion of married women has been declining,and the marital fertility rate remains relatively high.With the cohort structure of women of childbearing age changing,marriage delay may become an important factor causing the risk of low fertility in China.