基于负荷特性的钢铁企业超短期电力负荷预测

Ultra Short Term Load Forecasting of Iron&Steel Enterprises based on Load Characteristics

提出了一种根据钢铁企业典型工序综合负荷特性,在充分考虑外部影响因素的情况下,合理选择不同工序负荷的预测模型及方法,从而实现对工序分量的负荷预测;并采用组合预测的方法将工序分量加权累加后,生成企业关口负荷预测结果。该预测方法综合考虑了企业各个工序的负荷特性和负荷变化趋势,有效提高企业关口负荷预测的精度,与企业用电负荷管理与电力需量控制系统相结合,可有效降低企业生产的供电成本。

This paper presents a model and method for selecting the load forecasting of different processes reasonably,which is based on the comprehensive load characteristics of typical working procedures in iron&steel enterprises and considers the external factors sufficiently,so as to realize the load forecasting of process components.The combined forecasting method is used to add the process components weighted to generate the load forecast results of the enterprise gateway.The forecasting method comprehensively considers the load characteristics and load change trend of each process of the enterprise,effectively improves the accuracy of the load forecasting at the gate of the enterprise,and combines with the enterprise power load management and power demand control system,which can effectively reduce the power supply cost of the enterprise operation.