碳中和愿景下电力部门低碳转型路径研究

The Path of Low-Carbon Transformation in China’s Power Sector Under the Vision of Carbon Neutrality

碳中和愿景一方面加速了全社会电气化发展,致使电力需求持续增加,另一方面对尽早实现零碳电力提出要求,电力部门低碳转型进程更加紧迫而复杂。本文首先定性分析碳中和背景下电力部门的总体转型思路和技术不确定性影响,其次采用电力部门与终端部门耦合的C~3IAM/NET模型对电力需求进行预测,同时根据关键低碳技术发展的保守预期和积极预期设计多种情景,以开展电力低碳转型路径优化和成本效益研究。结果显示,发电碳排放量峰值可能出现在40亿~42亿吨,在2049—2060年有望实现零碳电力,电力部门低碳转型速度和效果因技术不确定性而存在明显差异。2021—2060年电力低碳转型累计投入为171万亿~180万亿元,CCS技术累计减排贡献超过250亿吨,可再生能源电力占比需达到68%以上,风电和光电将成为主要电力。

On the one hand,the carbon neutral vision has accelerated the electrification of the whole society,resulting in a continuous increase in the demand for electricity.On the other hand,it has called for the early realization of zero-carbon electricity.The lowcarbon transition process of the power sector is more urgent and complex.At first,this paper makes qualitative analysis of the overall transformation ideas and uncertainty of the power technology under the background of carbon neutrality.Secondly,we forecast the power demand using C~3IAM/NET model(China’s Climate Change Integrated Assessment Model/National Energy Technology),which couples power sector and terminal sectors.Meanwhile,we conduct low-carbon transition pathway optimization of power sector and cost effective research by designing multiple scenarios according to the conservative and positive forecasts of key low-carbon technologies development.The results show that the carbon emission of power generation will be likely to peak at 4 billion-4.2 billion tons,and zero-carbon electricity is expected be achieved in 2049–2060,while the speed and effect of the low-carbon transformation of the power sector will vary significantly due to technological uncertainties.From 2021 to 2060,the accumulative investment in lowcarbon transformation of the power sector will be 171 trillion-180 trillion yuan,and the accumulative contribution of CCS technology to emission reduction will be over 25 billion tons.The proportion of renewable energy will account for at least 68%,and wind power and photovoltaic power will be the main power sources.