碳中和目标下的北京城市道路移动源CO_2和大气污染物协同减排效应研究

Study on the Synergetic Emission Reduction Effect of CO_(2) and Air Pollutants from the Mobile Source of Urban Roads in Beijing Under the Target of Carbon Neutralization

为实现2060年碳中和目标,研究北京城市道路移动源CO_(2)和大气污染物(CO、NO_(x)、PM_(2.5))的协同减排效应。本文以2016年为基准年,建立CO_(2)和大气污染物排放量的LEAP模型,设计三种政策情景,预测到2060年各类污染物排放量,并通过减排效应坐标系分析和减排弹性系数法研究不同措施下CO_(2)和大气污染物的协同减排效应。结果显示,综合政策情景的减排作用最好,且协同减排效应最显著,但在2060年无法实现碳中和目标;单一措施情景下,严格排放标准措施的协同减排效果有限,但对各污染物的减排协同性最优,推广公共交通减排协同性次之,发展新能源车辆措施具有较好的协同减排效果,但对CO_(2)—CO和CO_(2)—PM_(2.5)的减排协同度较差。对此,本文提出应加快推动交通能源结构转型,在新能源车取代燃油类机动车的同时,要不断减少天然气类车型的比例,尽可能实现"电能+新能源汽车"的零排放能源结构;还要加严机动车排放标准限值以加强CO_(2)和大气污染物的减排协同度;制定相应的机动车CO_(2)和大气污染物协同排放限值标准目标,构建CO_(2)与大气污染物排放协同管理体系等建议。

In order to achieve the goal of carbon neutralization in 2060,the collaborative emission reduction effects of carbon dioxide and air pollutants(carbon monoxide,nitrogen oxides,fine particulate matter)from mobile source of urban roads in Beijing were studied.Taking 2016 as the base year,the LEAP model of CO_(2) and air pollutant emissions was established in this paper,three policy scenarios were designed to forecast the emissions of various pollutants in 2060,and the synergistic emission reduction effects of CO_(2) and air pollutants under different measures were studied through the analysis of emission reduction effect coordinate system and the method of emission reduction elasticity coefficient.The results showed that the comprehensive policy scenario has the best emission reduction effect,and the synergistic effect is the most significant,but it cannot achieve the carbon neutral goal in 2060.Under the single measure scenario,the collaborative emission reduction effect of strict emission standard measures is limited,but the collaborative emission reduction effect of each pollutant is the best,followed by the promotion of public transport,and the development of new energy vehicles has good collaborative emission reduction effect,but the collaborative emission reduction effect of CO_(2)—CO and CO_(2)—PM2.5 is poor.In this regard,we should speed up the transformation of transportation energy structure,while new energy vehicles replace fuel vehicles,the proportion of natural gas vehicles must be constantly reduced,and the zero emission energy structure of"electric energy+new energy vehicles"should be realized as much as possible.It is also necessary to tighten the limits of motor vehicle emission standards to enhance the synergy of CO_(2) and air pollutants emission reduction;It is suggested to formulate the corresponding vehicle CO_(2) and air pollutant emission limit standards,and build the CO_(2) and air pollutant emission collaborative management system.