中国实现2030年可持续发展议程空气相关目标的评估和建议

Assessment on China’s status in achieving air-related targets of the UN 2030 SDGs and policy recommendations

自2013年颁布实施《大气污染防治行动计划》(气十条)以来,我国空气质量持续改善,取得的成就令世界瞩目。虽然国内已有不少关于空气改善模式的解读和研究,但是在联合国2030年可持续发展议程(简称SDGs)这一国际公认的权威框架下,还没有对中国实现SDGs空气相关目标进行系统评估和趋势预测研究,正确评估中国实现SDGs空气相关子目标进展情况有利于识别我国当前空气污染治理的主要挑战和优先事项,为进一步落实SDGs空气目标奠定基础。本文首先识别出SDGs中5个可量化评估的空气子目标,通过情景预测分析,发现我国在实现SDGs空气子目标方面呈现积极态势:二氧化碳排放、公共交通、PM_(2.5)三个子目标处于正轨,基本能实现目标;可再生能源和能效改善两个子目标需要加强。最后提出制定可量化的中长期空气目标,加强数据收集;加快发展可再生能源并改善能源利用效率;推进二氧化碳和主要大气污染物协同减排等政策建议。

Since the Action Plan for Air Pollution Prevention and Control took effect in 2013,China′s air quality has been greatly improved,which has attracted the world attention.Although many interpretations and studies on the air improvement model came to emerge in China,systematic assessment and scenario forecast on whether China will achieve the UN 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda(referred to as SDGs)are still lacking.Assessment on China′s status in achieving SDGs air-related goals is key to identifying the main challenges that China is facing in combating air pollution,which will lay a solid foundation for further implementation of SDGs air-related targets.This paper first identifies 5 measurable air-related SDGs goals,and through scenario analysis finds that China has shown a positive trend in achieving air-related SDGs goals:three goals of carbon dioxide emissions,public transportation,and PM2.5 are on good track,and two goals of renewable energy and energy efficiency need to be strengthened.Recommendations include China should formulate measurable medium and long-term air targets and strengthen data collection,accelerate the development of renewable energy and improve energy efficiency,and achieve synergies in CO2 and major air pollutants reduction.