畜牧养殖业碳排放与经济增长关系——基于吉林省的统计数据

Empirical Study on the Relationship Between Carbon Emission and Economic Growth in Animal Husbandry Industry:Based on Statistical Data of Jilin Province

为了研究近年来吉林省畜牧养殖业碳排放与经济增长之间的关系,测算了1997—2018年吉林省畜牧养殖业碳排放量,并采用EKC理论与LMDI分解模型对吉林省畜牧养殖业碳排放进行库兹涅兹曲线验证和影响因素分析.结果表明:(1)1997—2018年吉林省畜牧养殖业碳排放量呈现“持续增长-持续下降-缓慢回升-波动下降”4个阶段特征,碳排放强度总体呈下降趋势;(2)研究期内吉林省农村人均畜牧养殖业碳排放和农村人均畜牧业产值之间存在“倒U型”曲线关系,并已出现拐点;(3)经济产出因素是促使吉林省畜牧养殖业碳排放增加的最主要因素,农业结构因素是重要诱因;生产效率因素是吉林省畜牧养殖业碳减排的主要贡献者;劳动力因素对吉林省畜牧养殖业碳减排的贡献将逐渐增大.依据上述结论,提出吉林省应加强低碳养殖科技支撑,实现废弃物资源化利用,加大政策扶持力度,制定强牧惠牧政策,加大宣传力度,培育低碳理念等相关建议.

In order to find out about the relationship between carbon emissions of livestock and poultry breeding industry and economic growth in Jilin Province in recent years,the carbon emissions of livestock and poultry breeding industry in Jilin Province from 1997 to 2018 were calculated,and the“EKC”theory and“LMDI”decomposition model were used to verify the kurzniz curve and analyze the influencing factors of carbon emissions of livestock and poultry breeding industry in the province.The results show that:(1)the carbon emissions of livestock and poultry breeding in Jilin Province from 1997 to 2018 show a four-stage characteristics of“continuous growth/continuous decline/slow recovery/fluctuation drop”,and the overall intensity of carbon emissions shows a downward trend.(2)During the study period,there was a significant“inverted U-type”curve change between the per capita rural carbon emissions of livestock and poultry breeding in Jilin Province and the per capita rural animal husbandry output value.(3)The economic output factor is the most dominant factor contributing to the increase of the carbon emission of livestock and poultry breeding in Jilin Province,and the agricultural structure factor is the important inducement,the production efficiency factor is the main contributor to the carbon emission reduction of livestock and poultry breeding in Jilin Province,and the contribution of labor force factor to the carbon emission reduction of livestock and poultry breeding in Jilin Province will gradually increase.Based on the above conclusions,it is suggested that Jilin Province should strengthen the scientific and technological support in low-carbon farming,make a better utilization of waste resources,reinforce support of policies,formulate the policies that facilitate and benefit animal husbandry,step up publicity campaign,and cultivate the low-carbon awareness.