基于供需均衡视角的我国老年长期照护保险的费率测算

Prediction of Contribution Rate of Long-term Care Insurance for the Aged in China based on the Balance of Supply and Demand

目的测算2020-2050年我国长期照护保险的费率,以期为构建统一且可持续的长期照护保险制度提供循证依据。方法基于人口普查、国家统计年鉴和全国性CLHLS调查等数据,运用基金平衡视角的ILO筹资模型,通过总体仿真模型和蒙特卡洛模拟测算2020-2050年我国失能老年人长照险的费率。结果到2050年,我国失能老人的照护总费用由2020年的5880亿元增加到85308亿元,其中80.2%发生在城镇地区。此外,2050年城镇和农村人均照护费用分别约是2020年的6倍和11倍。长期照护保险的总体缴费率由2020的1.46%上升至2050年的5.14%,约增加3.5倍。其中,2020年总缴费率接近于日本2015年的1.33%、德国2010年的1.40%。按照雇主与雇员1∶1的负担比例,各承担0.68%的保费。结论2020-2050年我国失能老人的长期照护财务需求愈发旺盛,尤以城镇地区最为显著,农村人均照护费用负担加剧。长期照护保险的总体缴费率呈线性上升趋势,投保人的缴费负担在逐年增加,亟待建立多元财务供给的可持续性筹资机制。

Objective This study aimed to predict the contribution rate of long-term care insurance in China from 2020 to 2050,in order to provide evidence for building a unified and sustainable long-term care insurance system.Methods Based on the population census data,the national statistical yearbook and the national CLHLS survey database,and the ILO financing model from the perspective of fund balance,the overall simulation model and Monte Carlo simulation were used to calculate the contribution rate of long-term care insurance for disabled elderly from 2020 to 2050 in China.Results By 2050,the total care costs increased from 538.0 billion yuan in 2020 to 8530.8 billion yuan,of which 80.2%occurred in urban areas.In addition,the per capita cost of care in urban and rural areas in 2050 is about 6 times and 11 times of that in 2020,respectively.It was estimated that the overall contribution rate of long-term care insurance in China from 2020 to 2050 will rise from 1.46%in 2020 to 5.14%in 2050,an increase of about 3.5 times.Among them,the total contribution rate in 2020 will be close to 1.33%in Japan in 2015 and 1.40%in Germany in 2010.According to the 1∶1 payment proportion between employer and employee,each side bears 0.68%of the insurance premium.Conclusion From 2020 to 2050,the financial needs of long-term care for disabled elders in China will become stronger,especially in urban areas,and the burden of per capita care costs in rural areas will increase.The overall contribution rate of long-term care insurance is increasing linearly,and the payment burden of policyholders is increasing year by year.It is urgent to establish a sustainable financing mechanism for multiple financial supplies.