全球木质林产品贸易网络演化与供需大国关系

Change of global woody forest products trading network and relationship between large supply and demand countries

为揭示全球木质林产品贸易网络的演化特征与演变轨迹,掌握中国在全球木质林产品贸易网络中的地位变化及供需安全性,本文基于1993—2018年全球木质林产品贸易数据构建有向加权复杂网络模型,主要对全球木质林产品贸易网络的整体演化、节点中心性演化、集团演化、供需大国竞合关系及中国木质林产品贸易的供需安全展开实证分析。结果表明:(1)全球木质林产品贸易关系不断趋于复杂化,贸易网络的连通性整体上增强,且表现出典型的小世界特性,是"点对点"的贸易模式;北美洲贸易地位下降,亚洲、大洋洲、南美洲贸易地位上升,欧洲仍然是木质林产品进出口贸易的重心;中国与荷兰、法国、美国共同掌握着木质林产品贸易网络的信息与资源,是贸易网络的关键枢纽,起着重要的桥梁作用;(2)全球木质林产品贸易网络存在4大集团,各集团间出现了交织与重叠的现象,表现出相互融合的迹象;区域经济合作组织是贸易集团演化的重要原因;(3)中国、美国与加拿大,德国、意大利与法国,荷兰与比利时,荷兰与德国,比利时与法国,德国与波兰彼此为重要的贸易合作伙伴,中国与美国、巴西分别在日本、美国市场存在竞争,加拿大、美国与巴西在中国市场存在竞争,德国、英国、意大利和法国市场是G1的主要争夺对象;中国、俄罗斯、巴西、意大利、荷兰、美国、芬兰是联系集团内外部木质林产品贸易的关键枢纽;(4)防范目标性中断对于保障中国木质林产品的供需安全至关重要。本文对中国木质林产品贸易发展、木材产业安全及贸易政策制定都具有十分重要的意义。

In order to reveal the characteristics and trajectory of change of the global woody forest products trading network and grasp the change of status and the security of supply and demand of China in the global woody forest products trading network,this study constructed a directed weighted complex network model based on the global woody forest products trade data from 1993 to 2018,and mainly analyzed the overall change of the global woody forest products trading network,the change of node centrality,the change of trade group,the competition and cooperation relationship between large supply and demand countries,and the security of supply and demand in China’s woody forest products trade.The results show that:(1)The global woody forest products trade relations were becoming increasingly complex,the connectivity of the trading network was enhanced,and in essence,it was a point-to-point trade model with the characteristic of"small world".The trade position of North America declined,the trade position of Asia,Oceania,and South America improved,and Europe was still the focus of woody forest products import and export trade.China,the Netherlands,France,and the United States controlled the information and resources of the woody forest products trading network,and played an important role as a bridge.(2)There were four trade groups in the global woody forest products trading network,and there was some overlap between groups.Regional economic cooperation organizations were an important reason for the change of trade groups.(3)China,the United States and Canada;Germany,Italy and France;the Netherlands and Belgium;the Netherlands and Germany;Belgium and France;and Germany and Poland were major trading partners to each other.China competed with the United States in the Japanese market,and competed with Brazil in the U.S.market.Canada,the United States,and Brazil competed in the Chinese market.In addition,among the G1,Germany,Britain,Italy,and France were the most important competitive markets.China,Russia,Brazil,Italy,the Netherlands,the United States,and Finland were the key hubs connecting intragroup and external trade.(4)It is very important to prevent targeted interruption to guarantee the security of supply and demand of China’s woody forest products.This research is of great significance for the development of China’s woody forest products trade,the security of woody industry,and the formulation of trade policies.