基于前景理论的受偿意愿与支付意愿差异性——以青岛市胶州湾围填海造地为例

Disparity between willingness-to-accept and willingness-to-pay based on the prospect theory:A case study of Jiaozhou Bay reclamation in Qingdao City, China

受偿意愿和支付意愿的差异性导致条件价值评估法有所争议。本文基于前景理论参考点与厌恶损失构建效用函数,对受偿和支付意愿差异性的心理来源进行理论模型构建与分析,并在青岛市运用条件价值评估法构建胶州湾围填海造地3项差异化情景进行实证研究,为加强条件价值评估法调查结果的实践应用性提供参考。结果表明:(1)个体参考点偏离增大时,受偿和支付意愿的差异性增大;个体厌恶损失程度越高,表现出的受偿和支付意愿差异性越强。但两者在影响机理上有所差异,参考点通过正向影响受偿意愿,而厌恶损失通过负向影响支付意愿导致受偿和支付意愿间的差异性增大。(2)内在动机、融合动机以及教育程度均对支付意愿表现出显著正向影响,并且与受偿和支付意愿之间的差异性表现出显著负相关关系。(3)政府信任度与收入虽与支付意愿呈现出显著正相关关系,但并未对受偿和支付意愿之间的差异性表现出显著影响。研究揭示了影响受偿和支付意愿之间差异性的重要因素,有助于提高条件价值评估法运用的科学性与可靠性,为推进国内该领域相关研究提供参考。

The wide application of the contingent valuation method is always accompanied by considerable skepticism about the validity due to the disparity between willingness-to-accept(WTA) and willingness-to-pay(WTP). Based on the prospect theory, this study constructed a utility function by introducing the reference point and loss aversion to traditional utility function, and explored the psychological foundation of the difference between WTA and WTP. Furthermore, this study used the contingent valuation method to investigate residents’ WTA and WTP in Qingdao City for three scenarios of marine reclamation in the Jiaozhou Bay to conduct an empirical analysis. The results show that when the deviation of individual reference point in WTA and WTP increased, the difference between WTA and WTP increased. The higher the degree of individual loss aversion, the larger the WTA and WTP disparity. The reference point positively affected WTA,while the loss aversion negatively affected WTP, leading to the increase of the difference between WTA and WTP. Additionally, intrinsic motivation, integration motivation, and education level all showed significant positive effects on WTP, and showed significant negative correlation with the difference between WTA and WTP. Although the trust in the government and income had a remarkable positive correlation with WTA, they had no prominent impact on the disparity between WTA and WTP. The research revealed the influencing factors of WTA and WTP difference, which is helpful for improving the scientific and reliable application of the contingent valuation method and to provide references for further research in this field in China.