2020年11月青海杂多—治多震群及其预测意义研究

STUDY ON THE SIGNIFICANCE FOR ZADUO-ZHIDUO EARTHQUAKE SWARM PREDICTION IN NOVEMBER 2020 IN QINGHAI

2020年11月3日在青海杂多—治多县境内发生小震群活动,利用测震学参数及数字地震学方法对其前兆特性进行了分析,认为该震群具有前兆意义。杂多—治多震群附近区域对应力变化敏感,震群的形成可能与区域应力集中有关。通过分析该震群的预测意义认为未来半年内唐古拉地区存在发生5级以上地震的可能。杂多—治多震群发生在青海地区震群活跃期,对未来1~2年青海及邻区6.5级以上地震有预测意义。

A small earthquake swarm occurred in Zaduo-Zhiduo county,Qinghai Province on November 3,2020.In this paper we use digital seismological methods and parameters to analyse the forewarning of this earthquake swarm,and it is proved that the earthquake swarm has precursory significance.The area near Zaduo—Zhiduo earthquake swarm is sensitive to the change of stress,and the formation of earthquake swarm may be related to the regional stress concentration.Through analyzing the prediction significance of the earthquake swarm,it is concluded that there is a possibility of earthquakes with a magnitude above Ms5 in Tanggula area in the next half year.The Zaduo—Zhiduo earthquake swarm occurred during the active period of the earthquake swarms in Qinghai province,and it can predict earthquakes of magnitude over Ms6.5 in Qinghai and its adjacent areas in the next 1~2 years.