临夏水位高值异常分析及预报效能检验

ANALYSIS ON HIGH WATER LEVEL ANOMALY IN LINXIA AND TEST FOR FORECAST EFFICIENCY

针对临夏1号和2号井2018~2019年的高值异常,通过对观测干扰因素分析、地下水类型定量诊断及水化学组分和同位素分析,认为此次异常为2019年夏河5.7级地震前兆异常。通过震例分析和Molchan图表检验法检验分析给出其预报效能,结果表明其优势对应地震时间段为4个月左右,4~6个月的中短期的预报效能最佳,且其异常特征主要表现为低值或者高值异常。

In view of the 2018~2019 high anomalies in Wells 1 and 2 in Linxia,the interference factors,groundwater types,chemical components and isotopes of water are analyzed.It is considered that this anomaly is 5.7 earthquake precursor anomaly in Xiahe County in 2019.Its prediction efficiency is given through the analysis of earthquake cases and the verification of Molchan Chart.The results show that its superiority corresponds to the earthquake time interval of about 4 months,the short-term and medium-term forecast of 4~6 months is the best,and its anomaly features are mainly low value or high value anomaly.