基于系统动力学的行车安全管理决策

Traffic Safety Management Decision Analysis Based on System Dynamics

基于人员因素子系统、设备因素子系统、管理因素子系统等角度分析影响接发车安全的内在机制,使用Vensim软件构建铁路安全与各影响因素之间的因果关系图和流图。构建提升行车安全水平的系统动力学仿真模型,进行动态仿真模拟,并提出铁路安全提升的具体路径。研究结果表明,加大对人员因素的投入管理更有利于车站行车安全,提升安全水平,同时也能提高铁路有限资源的利用率,达到稳步提升铁路经济效益,保证行车安全的最终目的。

Based on the perspective of personnel factor subsystem,equipment factor subsystem and management factor subsystem,the internal mechanism affecting the safety of receiving and sending vehicles was analyzed,and the causation diagram and flow diagram between railway safety and various influencing factors were constructed by using Vensim software.Then,based on this,the system dynamics simulation model is constructed to improve the driving safety level.Finally,the dynamic simulation and simulation are carried out,and the specific path to improve the railway safety is proposed according to the research conclusion.The results show that increasing the investment in personnel management is more conducive to the station traffic safety,improve the safety level,and at the same time can improve the utilization rate of railway limited resources,so as to steadily improve the economic benefits of railway and ensure the ultimate goal of driving safety.