我国货币供应量对区域经济的有效性研究

Research on the Effectiveness of China's Money Supply to Regional Economy

自改革开放以来,在我国经济飞速发展的同时,地区间经济发展的不平衡性日益严峻,金融资源配置失衡等现象也随之呈现。但我国仍然实行统一的货币政策,忽略了货币政策效果的区域差异。因此,如何对货币政策进行改革创新,充分发挥货币政策的区域经济差异调节作用,谋求区域经济协调发展已然成为了我国货币政策改革的重点任务。论文通过对货币政策相关理论的分析,找出我国货币政策存在问题的原因,采用1990-2019年的数据,通过Johansen协整检验建立向量误差修正模型,进行脉冲响应分析我国货币供应量对区域经济有效性的影响。结果表明:我国货币政策效果存在区域差异,导致区域经济发展失衡;受货币供应量影响的东部地区的区域实际产出效应最大;利率对各个区域实际产出的脉冲响应结果均为负;在区域价格效应方面,货币供应量对各区域产生的影响差异较小。

Since the reform and opening up,along with the rapid development of China*s economy,the gap in regional economic development has gradually expanded,and the imbalance of financial resources allocation has also emerged.However,China still implements a unified monetary policy and ignores the regional differences in the effects of monetary policy.Therefore,how to reform and innovate monetary policy so that it can narrow the gap in China*s regional economic development and promote the coordinated development of regional economy has become an urgent task.This paper analyzes the relevant theories of monetary policy and finds out the reasons for the problems in China*s monetary policy.Using the data from 1990 to 2019,the vector error correction model was established by Johansen cointegration test,and the impulse response was analyzed to analyze the impact of China*s money supply on regional economic efficiency.The results show:there are regional differences in the effects of China’s monetary policy,leading to imbalances in regional economic development;the region in the eastern region affected by the money supply has the largest actual output effect;the impulse response of the interest rate to the actual output of each region is negative;in terms of regional price effects,the difference in the impact of money supply on each region is small.