基于投入产出模型的省际虚拟水流动关联分析与风险传递

Correlation Analysis and Risk Transfer of Provincial Virtual Water Flow Based on Input-Output Model

采用投入产出模型核算了我国各省份间的净虚拟水流量,并通过关联分析及量化的风险指标表征了虚拟水流动对输入地区的风险缓解与输出地区的风险增加作用。结果表明:净虚拟水流动在地区分布上具有明显差异,与虚拟水输入地区相比,输出地区集中于新疆、黑龙江、安徽等个别省份,其中新疆维吾尔自治区的净虚拟水高达1.92×10^(10)吨。地区间通过虚拟水的流动实现了水资源短缺风险的传递,虚拟水输出与输入双方增加或减少的风险具有显著的非对称性,新疆地区输出虚拟水增加的风险明显大于其输入对象降低的风险。从风险传递价值的角度出发,可通过调整行业税收、刺激跨区域消费或生产结构优化等方式适当鼓励黑龙江省与安徽省的虚拟水输出,减少新疆维吾尔自治区的虚拟水输出。

In this paper,the interprovincialnet virtual water flows in China were calculated by the input-output model,and the effect of the interprovincial flows on passing of risk among regions were characterized by correlation analysis and quantified risk indicators.The results show that the distribution of net virtual water flows varies significantly in different regions.Compared with the virtual water input regions,the output regions are concentrated in Xinjiang,Heilongjiang,Anhui provinces,in which the net output flow in Xinjiang is as high as 1.92×10^(10) tons.With the flow of virtual water,the risk of water shortage is transmitted among regions.However,there is significant asymmetry between the increased risk of output regions or reduced risk of the input regions.When Xinjiang exports virtual water to its outside,the increased risk of Xinjiang is obviously greater than the reduced risk in the input regions.From the perspective of risk transmission value,the virtual water output of Heilongjiang province and Anhui province can be appropriately encouraged and the virtual water output of Xinjiang can be reduced by adjusting industry tax revenue,stimulating cross-regional consumption or optimizing production structure.