房地产价格、人口流动以及城镇化水平相互作用机制研究

Research on the Interaction Mechanism of Real Estate Price,Population Flow and Urbanization Level

近年来我国大中城市容纳的流动人口越来越多,使得住房需求不断增加,加之各地城市经济发展水平不一,从而造成居民收入水平跟不上房地产价格上升的速度,高房价现象不仅增加了流动人口迁移至城市的生活成本,而且还影响了我国城镇化进程。为了更好地缓解房价过快上涨,达到稳步提升我国城镇化水平的目的,利用2005—2016年我国31个省(市区)的面板数据,通过建立联立方程模型考察人口流动、房地产价格以及城镇化水平三者之间的联动关系。研究发现,人口流动与房地产价格之间表现为相互促进的关系,同时这两者对提升城镇化水平具有明显的促进作用;人口流动、房地产价格以及城镇化水平三者之间的联动作用还存在着明显的地域以及时序上的差异。

In recent years,more and more floating populations have been accommodated in large and medium-sized cities in China,which has continuously increased the demand for housing.In addition,the economic development level of cities in various regions has been different.This phenomenon not only increases the cost of living of migrants to cities,but also affects the urbanization process in China.This article starts from the purpose of better alleviating the rapid rise in housing prices and steadily increasing the level of urbanization in China.Using panel data from 31 provinces and municipalities in China from 2005 to 2016,we established a simultaneous equation model to examine population mobility and real estate prices.And the linkage between the three levels of urbanization.The relationship between population migration and real estate prices is mutually reinforcing,and at the same time,the two have a significant role in promoting the level of urbanization;the joint effect between the three of population migration,real estate prices,and urbanization levels is also obvious Regional and timing differences.