交通基础设施与区域经济增长:基于多种运输方式的分析

Transportation Infrastructure and Provincial Economics Growth in China: An Analysis from Multi-transportation Perspective

研究我国各区域交通基础设施与经济增长之间的关系,采用面板GMM方法来评估多种运输方式对区域产出增长的影响。GMM模型估计表明:铁路和公路对经济增长有显著影响。普通铁路对中国不同地区农业和制造业产出的影响尤其显著且稳健,并且导致较大的经济增长量。样本外估计显示,公路和铁路的GMM估计大幅降低了区域GDP增长的预测误差。高速铁路、航空和水运对经济增长贡献具有异质性,尤其是对东部地区作用显著。脉冲响应和方差分解表明,交通基础设施与区域经济增长之间存在着双向作用关系。我国综合交通规划和交通投资需提升高速铁路和民航的网络可达性,进一步向公路和传统铁路倾斜,在中西部地区合理进行高速铁路和民航发展的布局规划。

We examine the relationship between growth in transportation and economic output across Chinese regions by using a panel data.Panel GMM methods evaluate the impact of changes in air,conventional rail,HSR,roads,and waterways turnover volume on provincial output growth.GMM estimates demonstrate that rail and roads significantly affect economic growth;rail’s impact is particularly significant and robust across econometric specifications,different regions in China and its estimates are economically large for agriculture and manufacturing output.Out-of-sample GMM forecasts show that road and rail substantially reduce forecast error of provincial GDP growth.In contrast,air,HSR,and water usage have heterogeneous impacts on economic growth,especially for eastern regions in China.Impulse response and variance decompositions indicate that rail and roads considerably affect GDP growth across China,and there is bi-causality between transportation and economic growth.Thus,transportation polices that encouraging network operation for HSR and civil aviation,further developing highway and conventional railway development,and making rational plan for HSR and civil aviation in central and western regions are suggested.