环境规制、集聚与制造业转型升级——基于调节及门槛效应的实证研究

Environmental Regulation,Agglomeration and Manufacturing Transformation and Upgrading--An Empirical Study Based on Moderating and Threshold Effect

制造业转型升级是实现高质量发展的关键。在分析环境规制、制造业集聚对制造业转型升级影响机制的基础上,以2006—2017年中国省际面板数据,构建调节与门槛效应模型,分别以环境规制和制造业集聚为门槛变量,实证分析了环境规制、集聚对制造业转型升级影响及二者相互调节的门槛效应。结果显示:环境规制与集聚能有效促进制造业转型升级,均具有明显的门槛效应,环境规制强度提高对制造业转型升级的推动作用更加显著,同时减弱了其对集聚与制造业转型升级间的负向调节效应;制造业集聚水平的提高抑制了对制造业转型升级的促进作用,并且其在环境规制与制造业转型升级间的调节效应由正向逐渐变为负向。因此,严格环境规制且适度降低制造业集聚水平能更有效地发挥二者对制造业转型升级的促进作用。

Transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry is the key to achieving high-quality development.Based on the analysis of the influence mechanism of environmental regulation and manufacturing agglomeration on manufacturing transformation and upgrading,a moderating and threshold effect model is constructed with the inter-provincial panel data of China from 2006 to 2017,and environmental regulation and manufacturing agglomeration are used as threshold variables,respectively,to empirically analyze the impact of environmental regulation and agglomeration on manufacturing transformation and upgrading and the threshold effect of mutual regulation between them.The results show that environmental regulation and agglomeration can effectively promote the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry,both with obvious threshold effect,and the increase in the intensity of environmental regulation has a more significant effect on the promotion of manufacturing transformation and upgrading,while weakening its negative moderating effect between agglomeration and manufacturing transformation and upgrading.Meanwhile,the increase of manufacturing agglomeration level inhibits the promotion of manufacturing transformation and upgrading,and its moderating effect between environmental regulation and manufacturing transformation and upgrading gradually changes from positive to negative.Therefore,strict environmental regulation and moderate reduction of manufacturing agglomeration level can play a more effective role in promoting the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry.