公交到站时间预测方法研究

Study on prediction method of bus arrive time

准确的公交到站时间预测是当下提升公交吸引力的关键技术之一。以福州市85路公交车为例,采用牌照法对公交站间行程时间进行数据调查并进行预处理。针对指数平滑法的优点,选取三次指数平滑法,在调查公交运行数据的基础上,构建公交到站时间预测的模型,并对其精度情况进行了检验。结果表明,该模型适用于公交到站时间预测且精度较高。

Bus arrival time prediction was one of the key technologies to enhance the attractiveness of public transportation.Fuzhou No.85 bus as an example,the bus travel time data was investigated and pretreated by the licensing.For the advantages of exponential smoothing,the cubin exponential smoothing method was selected,the bus arrival time prediction model was build based on the bus travel time investigation data,and its accuracy was tested.The results showed that the prediction model has high accuracy and were suitable for the prediction of bus arrival time.