基于MATLAB回归分析法的电网生产技改项目投资分析

Investment Analysis of Power Grid Production Technological Transformation Project Based on MATLAB Regression Analysis Method

电网生产技改项目涉及内容繁杂、设备种类多、资金投入较大,项目管理实践中常出现竣工决算超可研估算的情况。基于MATLAB回归分析法,利用某电网企业收集到的192个技改项目样本,将总投资分为建筑工程费、安装工程费、设备购置费、其他费用及静态投资几个维度,从波动性、规律性等方面进行项目投资控制效果的现状分析和预测,发现竣工结算、可研估算总投资及各分项费用的造价水平及变化规律。通过建立回归模型,对不同的电网技改项目总投资有更好的预测结果,有效实现了对电网技改项目的投资控制,减少了结算超估算的情况,加强了技改项目造价精益化管理,保证了技经管理工作的高质量发展。

Power grid production technological transformation projects involve complex content,various types of equipment,and large capital investment.In the practice of project management,there are often situations in which the final accounts for completion exceed the feasibility study estimates.Based on the MATLAB regression analysis method,using a sample of 192 technological transformation projects collected by a power grid company,the total investment is divided into construction engineering costs,installation engineering costs,equipment purchase costs,other costs,and static investment.From the aspects of volatility,regularity,etc.,the current situation analysis and prediction of the project investment control effect are carried out,and the cost level and change law of the total investment and the cost of each sub-item are found for completion settlement,feasibility study estimation.Through the establishment of regression model,the total investment of different power grid technical transformation projects has better prediction results,which effectively realizes the investment control of power grid technical transformation projects,reduces the situation of settlement over estimation,strengthens the lean management of technical transformation project cost,and ensures the high-quality development of technical and economic management.