两栖生计下中国流动人口城镇购房意愿的空间特征和影响因素

Spatial pattern and determinants of migrants'urban housing purchase intention under the binary-locational household arrangements

流动人口的城镇购房意愿和空间偏好直接关系到流动人口市民化的路径选择与城镇化的高质量发展。基于2016年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据和统计数据,对比研究了流动人口流入地和流出地城镇购房意愿的空间特征和影响因素。研究发现:①流动人口城镇购房意愿具有层次性和两栖性特征,还有小部分流动人口拥有多地城镇购房意愿。②流入地和流出地城镇购房意愿在空间上形成“此高彼低”互补的分布特征。在人口流入地区和以跨省流动为主的东南区域,流动人口流入地城镇购房意愿低但流出地城镇购房意愿高;而在人口流出地和以省内流动为主的区域,情况恰与此相反。③城镇购房意愿主要受流动人口个体特征和城市住房市场因素的影响,但不同要素对两类城镇购房意愿的影响各异。受教育年限、管理技术人员、不完整家庭化流动、家庭生命周期和城市房价仅对流入地城镇购房意愿有显著影响;已在城镇购房和流动次数仅对流出地城镇购房意愿有促进作用;户口性质、制造加工业人员、流动范围、本地居留时间和城市规模则在两类意愿中起着相反方向的影响效应。

The migrants'urban housing purchase intention and its spatial preference are directly related to the path selection of the conversion of rural migrants into urban citizens and the high quality development in the new phase of urbanization.Therefore,understanding migrants'urban purchase intention and its determinants and monitoring its spatial patterns are of great importance for both academic studies and policy-making.Based on the data from the 2016 China Migrant Dynamic Survey and related statistics of cities,this paper provides an updated and comprehensive study on migrants'urban housing purchase intention in the original and destination urban areas and the determinants by using spatial autocorrelation and multi-level regression models.The results suggest that 21.62%of respondents indicated their intention of purchasing housing in the destination city;in the meantime,11.07%of respondents expressed their intention of housing ownership in the original urban areas,and 1.68%of migrants have the housing purchase intention in both the original and destination urban areas.The research also reveals a significant variation of migrants'urban housing purchase intention among cities of different sizes,and geographical regions,demonstrating that migrants'urban housing purchase intention in the original and destination urban areas forms a complementary distribution characteristic in space.While the southeastern coastal area is the main destination of migrants in China,which is dominated by inter-provincial mobility,the urban housing purchase intention of migrants in this area belongs to the lowest categories;in contrast,its urban housing purchase intention of the original urban areas is one of the highest among different regions.However,in the migration original areas,and the areas which is dominated by intra-provincial mobility,the situation is just the opposite.The modelling results reveal that the migrants'urban housing purchase intention is mainly affected by migrants'individual characteristics and the destination city's housing market,and the level of the destination city's social and economic development has no significant effect.However,there are some important differences between the determinants of the urban housing purchase intention of the original and destination urban areas,shedding light on the variation in the factors affecting migrants'urban housing purchase intention in different urban areas.More specifically,education,occupational status of professionals and technicians,semi-family migration,family life cycle and urban housing prices have only a significant impact on the housing purchase intention in the destination cities;possessing urban houses and the number of migration motilities has only contributed to the housing purchase intention in the original urban areas;nature of household registration,occupational status of manufacturing industry personnel,mobility range,duration at host location and city size have the opposite effect in the two types of housing purchase intention.These results provide an important scientific and evidence basis for policy making to promote the further increase in migrants'urban settlement intention and its permanency and stability,which will further facilitate the advancement of China's urbanization.