中国物流与经济的时空轨迹及其耦合趋势研究

Study on the Spatial‐temporal Trajectory and Coupling Trend of Logistics and Economy in China

采用重心模型与空间耦合模型,分析1998-2018年中国物流重心、经济和三次产业重心的时空演变,揭示其耦合规律与特征。结果表明:①物流重心总体向西南方移动,且易受外界影响变化幅度较大,变动中既存在稳定性又存在特殊时间上移动的差异性;②经济重心的轨迹呈现出先向东北,后波动式向西最后向西南移动,可见东西方向上经济的差距在缩小,南北差距慢慢扩大;③第一产业重心先向西北后折向西南移动,第二和第三产业重心移动轨迹相似,均表现出向西和向南方向移动;④空间重叠性上,与物流重心耦合性最高的产业先是第三产业,后变为第一产业,表明第一产业发展与物流的空间关联度在不断增强;空间变动一致性上,与物流重心变动一致性较强的是第二产业,说明物流与第二产业发展关系密切;物流与第三产业重心同向变动系数值较大,说明第三产业发达地区对物流吸引力较强。

Using the gravity model and spatial coupling model,the spatial and temporal evolution of the center of gravity of logistics,economy and three major industries in China from 1998 to 2018 are analyzed and the coupling laws and characteristics are revealed.The results are shown as follow.The center of gravity of logistics moves to the southwest in general.It is susceptible to external influences.There are both stability and difference of movement in special time.The economic center of gravity tracks to the northeast first,then fluctuates to the west and finally moves to the southwest.It can be seen that the east‑west economic gap is narrowing and the north‑south gap is slowly expanding.The center of gravity of the primary industry moves to the northwest first and then to the southwest.The center of gravity of the secondary and tertiary industries moves in a similar trajectory,both moving in a westward and southward direction.In terms of spatial overlap,the industry with the highest coupling between the center of gravity of logistics is the tertiary industry and after then become the primary industry,indicating that the development of the primary industry is increasingly dependent on logistics.On the consistency of spatial change,the second industry is more consistent with the change of the center of gravity of logistics,which indicates the close relationship between logistics and the development of the second industry.The coefficient of change value of the center of gravity of logistics and the tertiary industry in the same direction is large,which indicates that the regions with developed tertiary industry are more attractive to logistics.