我国农民工回流的历史发展、变动趋势及保障路径——基于2010—2019年全国农民工监测数据的分析

Historical Development,Change Trend and Guarantee Path of the Return of Migrant Workers in China:Based on the Monitoring Data Analysis of National Migrant Workers from 2010 to 2019

为探讨新型城镇化建设背景下农民工回流的变化,根据已有研究对企业制度改革时期、全球金融危机时期和城市人口调控时期我国农民工回流返乡的历史发展进行了归纳总结;以2010—2019年全国农民工监测数据为基础,研究发现选择本地就业的农民工不断增加,农民工向中西部地区流动趋势增强,新增农民工流动范围逐渐缩小,高龄农民工倾向于选择回流务工;分析了农民工群体回流返乡的影响因素,主要包括国家政策牵引农民工实现就近就地转移、中西部地区经济发展水平持续增强、高龄农民工人力资本难以满足东部产业结构升级的要求、农民工群体与社会交互过程中的自主理性行为;并在完善中西部地区城市群协同发展机制充分发挥引领带动作用、改善创新创业环境大力支持返乡农民工创新创业、加强基本公共服务建设提高社会保障水平等方面提出了建立回流返乡农民工群体的长效保障机制的建议。

To explore the changes of migrant workers returning to their hometown under the background of new urbanization,this paper summarized it from three periodsincluding the enterprise system reform period,the global financial crisis period and the urban population control period,according to the existing research.Based on the national monitoring data of migrant workers from 2010 to 2019,the research indicated that the number of migrant workers choosing local employment and the flow trends to the central or western regions were increasing,while the flow range of new migrant workers was gradually narrowing,and the elderly migrant workers tended to choose return work.The influencing factors of migrant workers returning to their homeland mainly included the implementation of local transfer by national policies,the continuous enhancement of economic development in central and western China,the inability of human capital of elderly migrant workers to meet the requirements of industrial structure upgrading in eastern China,and the independent rational behavior of migrant workers in the process of interaction with society.Suggestions were put forward to establish a long-term guarantee mechanism for returning migrant workers,such as giving full play to the leading role in the aspects of perfecting the coordinated development mechanism of urban agglomerations in central and western regions,improving the innovation and entrepreneurship environment for vigorously supporting the innovation and entrepreneurship of returning migrant workers,strengthening the construction of basic public services and improving the level of social security,etc.